摩根大通近期發(fā)布了一篇關(guān)于美股宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、指數(shù)點(diǎn)位和大類資產(chǎn)趨勢(shì)的研究報(bào)告。該報(bào)告指出，對(duì)于2023Q1的觀點(diǎn)處于中性和看漲之間，市場(chǎng)將繼續(xù)由FICC（編者注：固定收益產(chǎn)品、外匯和大宗商品及衍生品）驅(qū)動(dòng)。標(biāo)普500指數(shù)雖然出現(xiàn)反彈，但在回到4000點(diǎn)之后，可能再次出現(xiàn)賣壓，所以價(jià)值、防御性和質(zhì)量仍是下一步的交易原則。
而摩根大通做出這一判斷的原因在于，預(yù)期通貨膨脹提升或維持不變——中國(guó)防疫政策邊際調(diào)整之后，對(duì)大宗商品需求再次上漲，需求提升推高價(jià)格。（編者注：中國(guó)12月財(cái)新服務(wù)業(yè)PMI 48，預(yù)期 46.8，前值 46.7。中國(guó)12月財(cái)新綜合PMI 48.3，前值 47）
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對(duì)于具體的資產(chǎn)類型，摩根大通建議關(guān)注醫(yī)藥、能源板塊，以及黃金；看空科技板塊。
◆看多理由：加息放緩抑制美元匯率、美債利率，進(jìn)而市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性修復(fù)
◆看空理由：中國(guó)需求復(fù)蘇推高商品價(jià)格，支撐通脹數(shù)據(jù)
◆關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)：美元指數(shù)、ISM、標(biāo)普500的EPS估值情況、市場(chǎng)資金流向
◆美股研判：關(guān)注醫(yī)藥、能源板塊，黃金；看空科技板塊
下面是翻譯注釋及原文：
圖注：摩根大通基于特定條件，將后市分為看漲、基準(zhǔn)、看跌3檔走勢(shì)的情況假設(shè)
包括上述變量，但主要取決于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息腳步放緩，表現(xiàn)為美元走弱，債券收益率高位試探難以為繼。此外，隨著通脹消退，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)或有助于提振經(jīng)濟(jì)。
除了上述變量外，關(guān)鍵是通貨膨脹率，要么走高，要么維持在這些水平。最有可能出現(xiàn)的情況是，中國(guó)的重新開放比預(yù)期的更強(qiáng)勁，這會(huì)推高大宗商品價(jià)格，尤其是在能源領(lǐng)域，從而在不放松勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的情況下削減支出。
基于【噪聲和策略倉(cāng)位監(jiān)測(cè)工具】發(fā)出的信號(hào)，目前市場(chǎng)的趨勢(shì)偏向中立。要變得更加樂(lè)觀，需要出現(xiàn)這些量化信號(hào)：
1）基本面改善，如美元走弱，ISM指數(shù)強(qiáng)勁，或積極的利潤(rùn)修正；
2）頭寸之間的博弈形勢(shì)。
總體而言，預(yù)期介于基本情況和看漲情況之間。
2023Q1可能仍然具有挑戰(zhàn)性，因?yàn)槊缆?lián)儲(chǔ)很活躍，但緊縮周期已接近尾聲，宏觀數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)出的信號(hào)喜憂參半。通脹正在消退，但勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的正常化，從而避免美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息調(diào)控，似乎不太可能在2023年實(shí)現(xiàn)。從另一個(gè)角度來(lái)看，新冠疫情對(duì)勞動(dòng)力供應(yīng)造成了結(jié)構(gòu)性阻力，這在未來(lái)12個(gè)月不太可能改變。
也就是說(shuō)，2023Q1似乎會(huì)繼續(xù)由FICC驅(qū)動(dòng)市場(chǎng)。鑒于美元和債券收益率有可能走高，實(shí)際收益率進(jìn)一步走高，收益率曲線進(jìn)一步趨平，我們保持謹(jǐn)慎看法。
如果可能的話，采取市場(chǎng)中性的方法，并將賣出將標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾指數(shù)帶至4000點(diǎn)水位線的任何反彈。價(jià)值、防御性和質(zhì)量因素的組合將主導(dǎo)我們的多頭。
從行業(yè)角度來(lái)看，可以考慮做多能源和醫(yī)療保健股。
能源方面，WTI近期處于75-90美元區(qū)間的底部附近，我們傾向于持有能源股；然而，能源ETF和WTI之間的價(jià)差在2022Q4擴(kuò)大（編者注：參考下圖），在能源在走高之前，這個(gè)價(jià)差可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)一些壓縮。
對(duì)于空頭而言，科技股可能仍將面臨挑戰(zhàn)，尤其是無(wú)利可圖的科技股和半科技股可能繼續(xù)疲弱，因?yàn)樗鼈儚南∪鞭D(zhuǎn)向過(guò)剩。
房地產(chǎn)/房地產(chǎn)投資信托基金是另一個(gè)中期路徑較低的領(lǐng)域。
另外，人們對(duì)央行儲(chǔ)備和支付系統(tǒng)有足夠的擔(dān)憂，因此在今年伊始，黃金成為許多人最青睞的投資之一。黃金傾向于與實(shí)際收益率反向移動(dòng)，雖然這種關(guān)系在2022Q4出現(xiàn)了背離（編者注：參考下圖），但可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)均值回歸。Natasha Kaneva和她的團(tuán)隊(duì)預(yù)計(jì)今年黃金均價(jià)為1785美元，較上周五收盤下跌2%。
◆BULL CASE: includes the above elements but is largely predicated on a less aggressive Fed that manifests in a weaker USD and bond yields that fail to retest highs. Further, the strength of labor markets as inflation dissipates should help bolster growth.
◆BEAR CASE: in addition to the above variables, the key here is inflation that either moves higher or stays constant around these levels. The most likely scenario is a stronger than expected Chinese reopening which increases commodity prices, especially in the Energy complex, that cuts spending without loosening the labor market.
◆DA&A QUANT VIEW: is currently Neutral based on our Signal from the Noise and Tactical Positioning monitors. To get more bullish, those quant signals would need to see either (i) improved fundamentals such as a weaker USD, strong ISM, or positive earnings revisions Or (i) an improvement in the positioning backdrop.
◆US MKT INTEL VIEW: sits between the base case and the bull case. Q1 is likely to remain challenging with the Fed active, but nearing the end of the tightening cycle, with macro data given mixed signals. Inflation is dissipating but if we need labor markets to normalize to push the Fed firmly on the sidelines, that seems unlikely to come to fruition in 2023. Thought differently, COVID created a structural headwind to labor supply which is unlikely to change over the next 12 months. That said, Q1 seems to be another quarter where Equities are driven by FICC markets. Given the potential for USD and bond yields to move higher, a further move higher in real yields, and a further flattening of the yield curve we maintain our cautious View. If possible, a market-neutral approach and would sell any rally that takes the SPx to / through the 4k level. A combination of Value, Defensive, and Quality factors is what would dominate our longs. From a sector perspective, consider longs in Energy and Healthcare. Regarding Energy, with WTI trading near the bottom of its $75-$90 near-term range, we like owning Energy Equities ; though, the spread between Energy ETFs and WTI broaden over 22Q4 which could see some compression before the group moves higher. For shorts, Tech is likely to remain challenged especially unprofitable Tech and Semis may continue their weakness as scarcity transforms to surplus. Real Estate / REITs are another area where the medium-term path is lower.
◆Separately, there is enough concern over central bank reserves and payment systems that gold is among many people" s favorite investments as we launch the year. Gold tends to move inversely to real yields, but that relationship has diverged in 22Q4, so we may see some mean-reversion. Natasha Kaneva and team see gold averaging $1785 this year, -2% from Friday" s close.
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